Canada among worst offenders as world falls short of climate-change targets

Climate change

The world is falling dangerously short of its global warming reduction targets and Canada is among the worst offenders, say scientists.

A new study published today in the journal Nature Communications finds that current emission reduction efforts in Canada, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia would result in a 5.1 C warming of the planet by the end of this century, if all other nations set similarly unambitious targets.

The paper, by two Australian climate researchers, tries to reconcile the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5-to-2 C by 2100, with what it terms the "self-interested bottom-up" approach being taken by individual nations.

 

The city of Toronto skyline is framed by power lines, smoke stacks and storage tanks. The emission levels of Canada's buildings, transportation and agriculture are all well above the G20 average. (Frank Gunn/Canadian Press)

Looking at emission targets through the lens of equity or fairness, the authors find that all industrialized nations, and particularly major oil exporters, are radically downplaying their role and responsibility in climate change, with India the only such country close to being on track to meet the 2 C target.

Australia, the United States and Brazil are all pursuing policies that will push the planet towards a 4 C temperature rise, while most European nations are producing emissions that would warm the planet by 3 C.

The gap between government pledges and their actual measures is now so wide, that the authors say warming targets should be set to "aspirational levels" of 1.1-to-1.3 C to compensate for all the fudging.

The findings echo another report released yesterday by the group Climate Transparency, which says that no G20 nation is on track to come anywhere near their 2030 Paris Agreement targets. These large economies, which are responsible for 80 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions, are instead steering the world towards at least a 3.2 C temperature rise.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Russia were judged the worst performers — on track for emissions that would contribute to more than 4 C warming.

But the group's report card for Canada is hardly better, citing the absence of "ambitious renewable energy targets and policies." It says Canada's emissions level would contribute to global warming of between 3 C and 4 C if the rest of the world behaved similarly.

The emission intensity of Canada's buildings, transportation and agriculture are all well above the G20 average, and overall the country produces almost three times more greenhouse gas per capita than the average bloc member.

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks prior to signing the Paris Agreement For Climate Change at the United Nations on April 22, 2016, in New York City. (Jemal CountessGetty Images)

All of this comes a little over a month after a dire warning from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the planet is warming even faster than projected, with the 1.5 C threshold likely to be surpassed as early as 2030, greatly increasing the risk of devastating droughts, wildfires, floods and food shortages.

For those who wonder what global warming's concrete consequences might be, the European Union's Joint Research Centre has released its own study on the human and economic consequences of a 2 C shift.

The report predicts an additional 132,000 heat-related deaths across Europe every year, as well as widespread water shortages in southern regions and a potential doubling of the continent's arid climate zone. On the flip side, northern nations are expected to experience much more rain, with flood damage anticipated to rise from 5.3 billion Euro a year to 17.5 billion.

 

Canada was slammed in a new report for failing to set aggressive renewable energy policies. ( Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

If there is any bright spot, it comes in the form of an embarrassing math error.

Late last month, a group of oceanographers published a paper in the journal Nature that applied a novel new method to measure oxygen and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It came to the conclusion that the world's seas were absorbing 60 per cent more heat than had been estimated, suggesting it might already be too late to halt global warming.

But another researcher pointed out a fundamental error in their calculations, and they are now working up a correction. The new calculations are expected to show that the oceans are warming at a rate closer to what the IPCC had already determined.

The fact that it was a climate science critic who discovered the mistake won't make it any easier to persuade deniers that the Earth is indeed in imminent danger.

However, it does mean that the emission reduction targets won't have to be radically revised upwards, placing an as-yet-unattained goal even further out of reach.