Fraser River sockeye run at lowest level in more than 120 years, Pacific Salmon Commission reports

This year’s Fraser River sockeye run is the lowest in more than 120 years, and the Watershed Watch Salmon Society says it all has to do with climate change.

“The salmon are suffering because of the changing environment of which we, as British Columbians, have some responsibility for,” said WWSS fisheries adviser Greg Taylor of the fishery, which ended Aug. 12.

“There ‘s a great link between (Premier) Christy Clark’s inaction on climate change and river temperatures that are lethal to salmon.”

Taylor was commenting after the Pacific Salmon Commission released an update Friday by its Fraser River Panel on the migration of the river’s sockeye and a review of the status of migration conditions in the river’s watershed.

According to the panel, the current in-season totals for the early Stuart run (so called because these early-run fish swim to Stuart Lake), early summer-run, summer-run and late-run are 18,000, 240,000, 520,000, and 75,000, respectively.

The panel noted that returns on the 2016 run would be the lowest of a four-year cycle.

“The exact reasons why the return fell at the lower end of the forecast range are unknown at this time, but poorer than average marine survival is a leading candidate,” the panel said.

“Almost half of the total 2016 return was expected to be contributed by the Chilko River and lake populations. But current in-season estimates of Chilko returns would project a smolt-to-age-four survival of less than two per cent, or less than one-third of the long-term average (1953-present).”

The PSC, a Canadian-American agency that helps manage fisheries, noted that the temperature of the Fraser River on Aug. 18 at Qualark Creek, about 20 kilometres north of Hope, was 20.6 C, which is 2.5 C higher than average for that date.

“Sustained exposure of sockeye to Fraser River water temperatures in this range has been shown to cause severe stress and early mortality,” the PSC said.

Taylor said he expects things to get even worse in the future.

“I think it will get worse, because not only are we concerned about the salmon returning this year, the next generation are living in those waters now. One can’t forget we also saw a collapse of the chinook numbers coming back this year.

“It has to do with the changing environment likely caused by a changing climate. This is not just isolated event. It’s affecting the whole North Pacific.”

Taylor said he was disappointed in Friday’s announcement that the B.C. government has put off the heavy lifting on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a later date.

 “I don’t think they’re taking the necessary steps to address climate change,” he said.

The much-anticipated update to a 2008 plan created under then-premier Gordon Campbell recommits the province to achieving an 80-per-cent reduction over 2007 levels by 2050.

However, Friday’s 52-page plan only lays out actions estimated to achieve less than half of the needed reductions by 2050, and much less if the government’s much-hoped-for liquefied natural gas export industry materializes and significantly increases emissions.

Friday’s low salmon count was no surprise, given reports earlier this month that this year’s Fraser River sockeye return, already forecast to be below average, turned out to be even worse. One First Nation leader described the return as going from poor to grim.

The forecast run this year — a low-run year in the four-year cycle of sockeye — was 2.27 million. That was already below the past half-century’s average of 3.9 million.

In addition to the summer runs, there is a late run in September.

While a record 30 million sockeye returned to the Fraser River system in 2010, returns have seen a general decline in the past decade or more.

PSC executive secretary John Field said it’s clear that salmon aren’t surviving in the numbers expected in the ocean environment. He noted that salmon arriving this year in the Fraser River appear to be healthy, and there are no reports of disease or stress on spawning grounds.

Earlier this summer, the PSC mentioned unusual warm ocean temperatures as a culprit in salmon survival. The commission noted a “warm blob” was observed in the central northeast Pacific throughout 2014 and 2015. 

This summer, a Fisheries and Oceans scientific panel also singled out warming ocean temperatures from the “blob” and El Niño. The report noted the warming temperatures disrupted the food supply of salmon and brought more predators, including sharks.

The low return numbers of Fraser River sockeye have resulted in a closure of commercial and recreational fisheries.