The MAGA Pipeline to Break up Canada

Oct. 6, 2025

MAGA Alberta’s latest attempt to sow division came in the form of a two-pronged assault.

A group of MAGA separatists met in Washington with “cabinet-level” officials about their plan to break up the country. MAGA Alberta is looking to use Danielle Smith’s promised referendum to unilaterally declare independence, with the expectation of immediate recognition from the Trump administration.

This is the second time since April they’ve met with “high-ranking” Trump officials. In April, a $500 million slush fund was reportedly discussed to facilitate the breakup.

As the MAGA traitors were meeting in Washington, Premier Smith announced that Alberta would lead the way in pushing a new pipeline through British Columbia.

Never mind that companies making unprecedented levels of profits aren’t willing to put a dime into the scheme. Or that the only thing Alberta has brought to the table is the promise of a measly $14 million to “study” possible routes.

Or the fact that Canadians are still on the hook for $34 billion spent on the last pipeline. Or the fact that at the start of the summer, Danielle Smith and Doug Ford announced a new pipeline through the fragile James Bay lowlands to a deep water port that doesn’t exist.

(We never heard anything more about that one after the initial flurry of headlines.)

Smith isn’t trying to get a pipeline built - she wants to force a debate over the oil tanker ban on the British Columbia coast.

This is all about stoking a war with British Columbia, environmental groups and Prime Minister Mark Carney. As her separation referendum stalls out, she needs to pick a fight with Canada to rile her base.

Will it work? Well, Canada’s media are already diving in. There is nothing Canada’s media loves more than a west versus Ottawa donnybrook and whether Ottawa is being mean to our oil giants.

But let’s talk about the real reason Danielle Smith can’t find a company willing to do the job.

When Kinder Morgan began the TMX pipeline, it quickly became apparent that the cost to build would be more than they could ever recoup. They walked when the project hit $5.4 billion.

The Trudeau government stepped in with a seemingly endless pot of public money.

The eventual cost to taxpayers was $34 billion. That meant that every household in Canada paid somewhere between $580 and $1,200 to help Suncor transport its bitumen to the United States.

Time and time again, Canadians have been promised that we would get our money back. The government swore that once the pipeline was built, it would be sold to a private company. No company has stepped forward.

The reason is that, despite the massive money dump, there is still no business case for the pipeline. That’s not to say that the oil companies aren’t making out like bandits thanks to the pipeline. They are making money hand over fist, but only because the public is paying the cost to ship every barrel down the pipe.

In 2013, the Canadian Energy Regulator decided to cap the costs that could be charged to companies that might use the pipeline in the future. The toll rates are the means by which the pipeline recovers its costs.

Capping the costs at 2013 levels meant that Canadians would pay 78% of the actual cost of using the pipeline through subsidized toll rates. Needless to say, the idea that letting massively profitable companies pay a mere 22% of the freight for their product represented an outrageous abuse of the public interest.

So, the interim toll rates have increased, but it still means that Canadians are paying about 52 cents on every dollar, while Suncor and Imperial take home the profits. And even then, the companies are fighting these new toll rates. They have gone back to the board to claim they are getting ripped off.

But here’s the simple fact: if the companies actually had to pay the full cost, it would add at least $13 per barrel for shipping fees, and the pipeline would grind to a halt.

One potential way to alleviate this debt problem to help out Big Oil is already underway.

The government has created two companies: the TMX Pipeline Corporation and a shell company called TMP Financial.

TMP Financial has no employees and is entirely under the control of the Canadian government. This company is where all the debt has been placed. Nothing like a shell company to make it easy for the government to erase the debt from the books, and voilà, TMX suddenly looks like a money winner.

And yet, still nobody wants to buy it.

So, what company is going to step up to lead Danielle Smith’s demand for a new pipeline through the northern British Columbia mountain range?

It’s not going to happen.

But you won’t see Danielle Smith or the MAGA separatists admitting there is no business case. They are setting up a fight over the federal tanker ban that was put in place to protect the fragile BC coast.

Already, oil giant Enbridge has stepped up to blame the tanker ban for their unwillingness to put their money where their big mouth is. This gives Smith the footing to stoke the rage machine. It is about driving her agenda to get a referendum on breaking up our country.

And that will give Trump all the fuel he needs to light a match on our border.

Hence, his willingness to meet the marginal characters claiming to be the ambassadors of a non-existent country.

Don’t get distracted by what you read in the media about the pipeline fight. MAGA is setting the stage for a manufactured “unity” crisis to try and break up our country or at least seriously undermine the federal government.

Keep your eye on the ball. The real strategy is there in plain sight.