Activate climate’s ‘silent majority’ to supercharge action, experts say

An overwhelming majority among the world’s people want stronger action to fight the climate crisis, but they are trapped in a self-fulfilling “spiral of silence” because they mistakenly believe they are in a minority, research has shown.

Making people aware that their pro-climate view is, in fact, the majority could unlock a social tipping point and push leaders into the climate action so urgently needed, experts say.

The key data comes from a global survey that interviewed 130,000 people across 125 nations and found 89% think their national government “should do more to fight global warming.”

It also asked people if they would “contribute 1% of their household income every month to fight global warming” and what proportion of their fellow citizens they thought would do the same. In almost all countries, people believed only a minority of their fellow citizens would be willing to contribute. In reality, the opposite was true: more than 50% of citizens were willing to contribute in all but a few nations.

The global average of those willing to contribute was 69%, a clear majority. But the percentage that people thought would be willing was 43%, a minority. The gap between perception and reality was as high as 40 percentage points in some countries, from Greece to Gabon.

Further analysis of the survey data for the Guardian showed that public backing for climate action was as strong in the crucial G20 member nations as in the rest of the world. These nations, including the US, China, Saudi Arabia, UK and Australia, are responsible for 77% of global carbon emissions.

“One of the most powerful forms of climate communication is just telling people that a majority of other people think climate change is happening, human-caused, a serious problem and a priority for action,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, a professor at Yale University in the US.

"Currently, worrying about climate change is something people are largely doing in the privacy of their own minds — we are locked in a self-fulfilling spiral of silence,” added Cynthia Frantz, a professor at Oberlin College in the US.

Dr Niall McLoughlin, at the Climate Barometer research group in the UK, said: “If you were to unlock the perception gaps, that could move us closer to a social tipping point among the public on climate issues.”

The existence of a silent climate majority across the planet is supported by multiple separate analyses. Other studies demonstrate a clear global appetite for action, from citizens of rich nations strongly backing financial support for poorer vulnerable countries and even those in petrostates backing a phase out of coal, oil and gas. A decades-long campaign of misinformation by the fossil fuel industry is a key reason the climate majority has been suppressed, researchers said.

Teodora Boneva, a professor at Germany's University of Bonn and part of the team behind the 125-nation survey, said: “The world is united in its judgment about climate change and the need to act. Our results suggest a concerted effort to correct these misperceptions could be powerful intervention, yielding large, positive effects.”

The 125 countries in the survey account for 96% of the world’s carbon emissions, and the results were published in the journal Nature Climate Change. People in China, the world’s biggest polluter, were among the most concerned, with 97% saying its government should do more to fight climate change and four out of five willing to give 1% of their income. Brazil, Portugal, and Sri Lanka also ranked highly.

The world’s second biggest polluter, the US, was near the bottom. Still, 74% of its citizens say its government should do more and 48% say they are willing to contribute. New Zealand, Norway and Russia were also relatively low scoring.

Research has also found that politicians suffer from serious misperceptions. In the UK, MPs vastly underestimated public support for onshore wind farms. In the US, people’s support for limits on carbon emissions was underestimated by almost 80% by Congressional staffers, sometimes by more than 50 percentage points.

“Perception gaps can have real consequences — they could mean that climate policies are not as ambitious as the public sentiment,” said McLoughlin.

Substantial evidence exists that correcting mistaken beliefs about the views of others can change people’s views on many subjects, from opinions on immigrants and violence against women, to environmental topics such as saving energy. This is because people are instinctively drawn to majority views and are also more likely to do something if they think others are doing it too.

“People deeply understand we are in a climate emergency,” said Cassie Flynn, at the UN Development Programme (UNDP), whose People’s Climate Vote in 2024 found 80% of people wanted stronger climate action from their countries. “They want world leaders to be bold, because they are living it day-to-day. World leaders should look at this data as a resounding call for them to rise to the challenge.”

This story is part of The 89 Percent Project, an initiative of the global journalism collaboration Covering Climate Now.

[Top photo: A global survey of 130,000 people across 125 nations found a 'silent majority' in every country thinks their national government should be doing more to fight the climate crisis. Photo by the Province of British Columbia/Flickr​]