Pipeline politics: What's next for B.C.?

OTTAWA — The proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion once resembled a political morass, something that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and B.C. Premier Christy Clark would wade into at their peril.

But both politicians have managed to put pipeline opponents on the defensive as both sides head into a three-front battle in 2017 over the $6.8-billion project.

Trudeau, one anti-pipeline environmentalist acknowledged Thursday, did a “masterful” job in packaging his approval with a string of environmental measures — a $1.5-billion Oceans Protection Plan, a national carbon tax and the cancellation of the Northern Gateway pipeline — aimed at easing the public’s concerns.

And Clark followed Trudeau’s lead this week with her own slickly packaged approval that included $25 million a year wrested from the company for a B.C. “Clean Communities” program.

“They’ve done this brilliantly,” University of B.C. political scientist Richard Johnston said Thursday.

But the battle is far from over as the conflict moves to the B.C. campaign trail, the courts and — when construction starts next autumn — the street.

“Completion of the pipeline just became even more probable, but it is by no means a lock,” said George Hoberg, who teaches environmental and energy policy at UBC’s Liu Institute for Global Studies.

Veteran B.C. climate-change campaigner Ben West said the next key battleground is the May B.C. election, which pits Kinder Morgan opponents John Horgan and Green leader Andrew Weaver against Clark. If the project becomes a ballot issue, she will be in a strong position to win re-election unless pipeline opposition coalesces around one of her two opponents.

West said he’s heard talk among pipeline opponents about the need to adopt a strategic voting strategy aimed at preventing vote-splitting among anti-Clark forces. However, Johnston also said he can’t see how Horgan could block the project given that both governments have approved it, and interprovincial pipelines is a matter under federal jurisdiction.

“The premier of B.C. cannot stop it,” he said.

The second centre of conflict is the courts, with the Tsleil-Waututh Nation of North Vancouver expected to soon launch a challenge on the basis that consultation was inadequate.

“Regardless of today’s announcement, the Kinder Morgan pipeline will never actually be built,” Charlene Aleck, a spokeswoman for the Tsleil-Waututh Nation Sacred Trust Initiative, vowed in a statement Wednesday.

But Trudeau’s Liberals went to considerable effort to avoid repeating the former Conservative government’s failure, as determined by the Federal Court of Appeal last June, to adequately consult First Nations on Northern Gateway. So courts would likely have to go beyond the current Supreme Court of Canada standard that states that First Nations must be consulted and accommodated, but that they don’t have a blanket veto on projects proposed on their traditional territories.

“Courts have the opportunity to shift the standard for First Nations involvement from consultation to consent. Not likely, perhaps, but certainly plausible,” Hoberg said.

The street battle remains the wild card. Opponents predict a protest far greater in scale than the “War in the Woods” battle over Clayoquot Sound logging in the early 1990s that led to more than 800 arrests.

Will the protests be peaceful and lawful, and if not will threatened mass civil disobedience alienate the broader Canadian public — or generate sympathy if, for instance, the police response is viewed as harsh?

One political insider cautioned Thursday about the risk of a “Goodbye Charlie Brown” moment, when a diminutive senior citizen’s showdown at a protest with a PM, Brian Mulroney, caused Mulroney to back down on a major policy initiative in 1985.

Other political wild cards between now and the May provincial vote, and the 2019 federal election, include the risks of a major environmental incident in B.C. waters or a pipeline rupture involving Kinder Morgan anywhere.

For Clark, turning a potential liability into an asset wasn’t a huge leap, given that her coalition party represents federal Conservatives and so-called “blue,” or pro-development, Liberals who are generally supportive of projects that generate economic growth and tax revenues.

She really didn’t have much choice but to endorse it, say political insiders.

Trudeau’s challenge is greater, given that he won the support of many B.C. pipeline opponents — and especially youth — by declaring a commitment to environmental issues and stating that only communities can grant permission for major projects.

“The ‘sneak attack’ announcements by Trudeau and Clark worked well in the short term as they did not allow opponents to organize,” said New Democratic MP Kennedy Stewart, who represents Burnaby South. “But it is hard to sneak attack construction of a 1,000-kilometre pipeline that runs through Canada’s third-largest metropolitan region …

“It  just tells me they are very nervous about this project and are politically vulnerable. Just wait until they start blasting holes through Burnaby Mountain.”