Calls for Faster Electrification, Fossil Phaseout as Scientists Predict Massive Warming Across Canada

Sept. 9, 2026

Last week’s Canada’s Changing Climate Report is a call for faster action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and shift the economy to clean electricity, analysts say, after the government reported that average warming will reach 3.5° to 5°C by 2100 across Canada and more than 10°C in the Arctic.

The report, issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada on the Thursday before the Labour Day long weekend, concluded that the impacts of climate change in Canada are now largely irreversible and average temperatures are expected to rise by at least 3.5°C by century’s end, The Canadian Press writes. The report, the second in a series, was authored by nearly two dozen government and climate science experts.

It says that even if the world reaches net-zero emissions by 2075, Canada will see a nearly 50% increase in the area burned by wildfires, and glaciers in Western Canada losing more than 75% of their mass, CP reports. It came on the heels of a UN Environment Programme report earlier in the week that showed countries blowing past the 1.5°C target for reining in global warming, adopted at the Paris climate summit in 2015.

Both reports have climate analysts acknowledging the depth of the crisis, but criticizing the authors for saying little or nothing about opportunities to reduce climate pollution by speeding up the energy transition.

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“The most surprising thing is the contrast between what the report says that we can expect for our future climate, and the level of action that the federal government and other governments in Canada are taking,” said Ryan Ness, adaptation research director at the Canadian Climate Institute.

With the climate policies now in place around the world, average temperatures in Canada are expected to rise 5°C by the year 2100, with a 50% chance that winter temperatures will increase by more than 10°C in much of Nunavut.

“That’s a lot of climate change that we have to adapt to and we’re not ready for it,” Ness said.

“We’re already seeing how vulnerable we are to the climate-driven disasters that we’ve experienced over the last few years. It’s only going to get worse, and yet the pace of action on adaptation is not high.”

Ness said adaptation should include things like retrofitting homes with more fireproof material and building firebreaks and flood walls around communities.

In addition to adapting to the impacts of climate change, Canadian climate hawks called for faster action to electrify the Canadian economy and phase out the fossil fuel production that accounts for three-quarters of the world’s climate pollution.

“This report again confirms that the human activity of burning fossil fuels is driving destructive levels of warming in Canada and around the world, and that all governments—including Canada’s—must do all they can to reduce fossil fuel use through the wholesale adoption of clean energy and electrification,” Pembina Institute Executive Director Chris Severson-Baker said in a release.

While the National Electricity Strategy has emerged as “Canada’s best tool for reducing emissions, while building a stronger, more secure, and more resilient Canadian economy,” Severson-Baker added, the document is still just “a concept—not a plan. For it to become a meaningful solution, fall’s Budget 2026 must include scaled-up investments in electrification across the economy.”

“This report should be a call to action,” said Julia Levin, associate director, national climate at Environmental Defence Canada. “The worst impacts of climate change are far from inevitable,” but “the only way to avoid those impacts is to quickly transition away from producing and burning oil, gas, and coal.”

In a report issued last year on Canada’s national climate adaptation strategy, Canadian environment commissioner Jerry DeMarco said Ottawa’s efforts to prepare the country for the impacts of climate change had stumbled out of the gate, CP says.

DeMarco’s report concluded the strategy was not effectively designed and did not prioritize Canada’s climate change risks, and that departments relied instead on existing priorities and consultations.

DeMarco cited the short-term health impacts of wildfire smoke, estimated to cost between $410 million and $1.8 billion annually between 2013 and 2018. He also remarked on the spike in Lyme disease cases from 144 in 2009 to 2,525 in 2022—an increase of more than 1,500%.

A progress report on the climate adaptation strategy released by Ottawa last month said there are hundreds of new flood-mapping projects under way to better identify flood-prone areas.

It also acknowledged that 94% of people living in high-risk areas don’t yet know their home is susceptible to floods.

The new report released Thursday says droughts and flash floods will become more frequent and severe as temperatures rise.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has been accused of backsliding on climate policy for the better part of the last year.

He eliminated the consumer carbon price in March 2025, on his first day in office. While he promised a strengthened industrial carbon pricing system, he was accused of weakening that system through an agreement with Alberta in May that has ramifications for every other province and territory.

His government is also moving to repeal the electric vehicle sales mandate—Ottawa has promised stronger tailpipe standards but those are still years away—and to cancel the oil and gas emissions cap. Carney’s government also has delayed new methane regulations in Alberta.

Carney has said federal climate policy under former prime minister Justin Trudeau was too expensive and divisive and “not sustainable over the long term.”

“Yet what is truly expensive is the price of the worsening climate crisis: we are paying with our dollars, homes, livelihoods, and in some cases, lives,” Environmental Defence’s Levin responded.

In response to Thursday’s report, the office of Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin said the government is still committed to reaching net-zero by 2050.

“To protect Canadians from the impacts of climate change and severe weather, the federal government has committed more than $2.1 billion to implement the National Adaptation Strategy and support a wide range of adaptation-related activities,” said Chris Zhou, Dabrusin’s director of communications.

“Our government is moving with urgency to fight climate change, while working together to build the energy security, industrial capacity, and strategic autonomy that will define this century for Canada.”

The main body of this report was first published by The Canadian Press on Sept. 4, 2026.

[Top photo: A government handout photo shows wildfires in Wanless, Manitoba, on Tuesday, May 27, 2025 (Jacob Morse/Facebook)]