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Cop28 failed to halt fossil fuels’ deadly expansion plans – so what now?
14/12/23
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Dec. 14, 2023
The absence of a ‘phase-out’ let petrostates off the hook, but there are other ways to end the era of coal, oil and gas
Petrostates fought fiercely against the call from 130 nations at Cop28 for a fossil fuel phase-out. That is because they are engaged in a colossal fossil fuel phase-up, already working on double the extraction that the planet can cope with.
This is the foundation of the climate crisis: carbon emissions must plunge rapidly to avoid climate catastrophe. But the fossil fuel industry is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into extracting more oil, gas and coal. It is betting that the world will not curb emissions and therefore not curb its trillion-dollar profits.
Cop28 could have bust the industry’s bet with a clear statement that fossil fuels must be phased out. It did not. Instead, a call to “transition away” from fossil fuels, shot through with loopholes, will not be enough to frighten investors away from the precious resources.
The fight is existential for both the fossil fuel industry and the rest of civilisation, but only one can prosper. “We are facing a confrontation between fossil capital and human life,” the Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, told delegates in Dubai.
But the petrostates came to Cop28 to fight by all means necessary. Extraordinary leaked letters from the oil cartel Opec to its members, reported by the Guardian, revealed their panic about the prospect of a call for a phase-out.
“Undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences,” the letters said. “It would be unacceptable that politically motivated campaigns put our people’s prosperity and future at risk.”
The deadly irony was not lost on delegates that the biggest risk to prosperity – and the most feared tipping points – come directly from the climate emergency driven by Opec’s products. Spain’s ecology minister called the letters “disgusting”, while delegates from vulnerable countries warned that a weak deal would be a death warrant.
Cop28 was hosted by a petrostate, the United Arab Emirates, and run by the boss of its state oil company, Adnoc. Sultan Al Jaber delivered a historic first mention of a fossil fuel transition. But his pitch was that, as an oil baron, he could drag the industry on to the path to climate salvation. He could not, and now returns to Adnoc, which has the biggest net-zero-busting plans of any company on Earth.
This was a moment of truth for the fossil fuel industry, after decades of lies and deceit. But it chose further lies, about “low-carbon” gas and mass carbon capture to mop up fossil emissions.
So if the fossil fuel industry cannot reform itself, even when it is running the show, how do we end its hegemony over the planet’s life support systems? Cops will continue their slow but essential consensus-based work. But the good news is that there are many other ways.
International regulations, like the EU’s carbon border tax, can penalise dirty producers. Methane limits can block the import of gas produced with excessive methane leaks. Climate clubs of nations can accelerate green action together, and exclude or penalise free-riding polluters.
Taxation on fossil fuels, and international aviation and shipping, is being seriously discussed after the establishment of a new taskforce at Cop28. Ending the insanity of the $7tn (£5.5tn) a year in subsidies that benefit fossil fuels would cut global emissions by 34% by 2030 – a large chunk of the 43% cut needed – and is starting to happen, from Nigeria to Canada.
People can confront the fossil fuel industry too. Protests can stop projects and help destroy the industry’s social licence to operate. Voting for climate-positive politicians narrows the space in which it can operate.
There are many other possibilities, most especially for the global middle class, which produces 50% of all emissions. Putting pensions in green pots and choosing electric cars, heat pumps, and trains over planes all help keep fossil fuels in the ground.
The end of the fossil fuel era will not be delivered by its suppliers. Just before Cop28, the Guardian reported on Saudi Arabia’s shocking plan to “hook” developing countries on oil.
The UN’s climate chief, Simon Stiell, gave an honest assessment of the Dubai summit’s progress just after the deal had been hammered through: “Cop28 needed to signal a hard stop to fossil fuels and their planet-burning pollution. We didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era, but this is clearly the beginning of the end. Loopholes [in the agreement] leave us vulnerable to fossil fuel vested interests.”
His boss, António Guterres, had a clear parting message to the petrostates. The UN secretary general said: “To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase-out of fossil fuels in the Cop28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”
[Top photo: Cop28 was hosted by a petrostate, the United Arab Emirates, and run by the boss of its state oil company, Adnoc. Photograph: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images]
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THE WINNERS The oil and gas industry | The need to “transition away from fossil fuels” may have finally been recognised after three decades of climate talks, but there is no clear obligation or hard timetable to achieve this, and numerous loopholes in the form of “transition fuels,” and allusions to carbon capture technologies and carbon credits. The United States and China | The world’s two biggest emitters will be breathing a sigh of relief after leaving Cop28 with few extra burdens to change despite growing global alarm about climate disruption. The US pledged only $20m in new finance for poor countries and remains the biggest oil producer. China can continue building coal-power plants. Sultan Al Jaber | Despite fierce criticism, the conference’s president got a compromise deal over the line that was widely praised by other nations as the best that could be achieved. It will also not lose him his day job as CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ biggest oil company, Adnoc, which is planning to expand output in defiance of scientific advice that this will push the world’s climate into more dangerous heating beyond 1.5C. Clean energy companies | Solar, wind and other clean energy firms look to be in for a bonanza after 118 governments at Cop28 pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030. This is intended to cut the share of fossil fuels in the world’s energy production, but until now renewables have added to oil, coal and gas, rather than replace them. Lobbyists | Industry representatives were present in record numbers in Dubai – 2,456 delegates from the oil and gas sector, 475 from the carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry, more than 100 from agribusiness and many more from elsewhere. Many will leave Dubai happy. The final text made no mention of the role of beef companies in the climate crisis, supported CCS and a debate on regulating the carbon trading market was scuppered for now. THE LOSERS The climate | The Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C was left nominally alive by Cop28, but has been killed off by the lack of urgency and specifics in the agreement. Despite the hottest summer in 120,000 years, the oil, gas, coal and farming companies that are heating the planet can continue to expand production for the foreseeable future. Small Island States | The Alliance of Small Island States, which represents those most vulnerable to sea level rise, said the agreement contained “a litany of loopholes” and represented only “incremental” change, which was not sufficient to keep heating below 1.5C. Climate justice | Despite progress at Cop28 in setting up a “loss and damage” fund, developing nations, which are most affected by the climate crisis but least to blame, say richer, industrialised countries are not paying enough to help them adapt and transition away from fossil fuels. Future generations and other species | The biggest victims of the climate crisis remain under-represented in decision-making processes. Despite the record heat of 2023, this is still likely to be one of the coolest years in the lives of many young people. The goal of zero global deforestation by 2030 was welcomed by conservation groups, but many ecosystems will continue to be eroded by rising temperatures. Scientists | Climate experts welcomed the mention of fossil fuels but said the deal did not reflect the urgency and clarity reflected in the science. “The lukewarm agreement reached at Cop28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses,” said Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, and co-founder of the World Weather Attribution group. “With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die.” Read more from Cop28: |
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